n95 dust masks

Rhodie Ranch

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A gentleman I worked with for 17 years, younger than me, died of cancer on Monday. Only his DD at his side. I cried and cried last night, for him, for the comradery we had at that company, for what is to be at my age, a continuing periodic notification of loss of my peers. Corona Virus or cancer....it will all take us sometime.
 

TwinCitiesPanda

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Unfortunately, I believe that COVID-19 would cause an excessive number of fatalities if allowed to spread unchecked - and that the media is hyping this negatively. Instead of focusing on the threat & what we can do to overcome it, the majority of the media seems to be more concerned with politicizing it, which I find distasteful.

That being said...

H1N1 did not ravage through nursing homes as COVID-19 does, nor with as high a mortality in that population. Because of its long gestation period & asymptomatic carriers, it is much more contagious than the flu. Whole rooms of people have been infected because a single carrier was present with them for a short period of time. So comparisons of COVID-19 (where efforts have been made to contain it) to the flu (which was allowed to spread unchecked) are comparing apples & oranges. For all intents and purposes, regardless of its origin, this disease has the properties of a biological weapon, given its impact on the entire planet. Hopefully it does not mutate before we get a handle on it, I've seen no evidence up to this point that it has done so.

Yes, the media is now inflating the death toll... NY decided to add those "probably killed" by corona virus, in spite of the fact those additional people were not tested, and could as easily have died from non-COVID pneumonia, flu, COPD, or a heart attack. That inflation of fatalities will probably continue from this day forward, for political reasons. But regardless of that inflation, we are losing about 1000+ people per day who were diagnosed... and that number continues to grow, in spite of the no-contact restrictions. So those who use the present numbers to downplay the severity of the outbreak are, IMO, off base.

As @seedcorn stated, the pandemic won't end until (a) the entire population has been exposed (herd immunity); (b) the vulnerable population has received an effective vaccine; or (c) effective treatment(s) are available to reduce or prevent loss of life.

There is some question as to how long ago COVID-19 has actually been spreading through the population... but option (a) is being prevented from happening by "stay-at-home", and is unsustainable unless/until widespread testing becomes fully accessible. Otherwise, the disease will just resume spreading until the majority of the population has been exposed. This would allow us to restart the economy, and put people (at least temporarily) back to work - but at a greater loss of life than any pandemic in our lifetime. According to Johns Hopkins, there are over 26,000 fatalities in the U.S. as of this date; so uncontrolled, we could realistically expect a death toll well over 100,000. It saddens & angers me that to serious proponents of this proposal, many of us on this forum in our later years would be considered expendable. :mad:

The best we can hope for - and what I believe is most likely to happen - is that option (c) is able to prevent loss of life until an effective vaccine can immunize the population. We are not there yet, but several drugs have shown great promise, if they can be approved & manufactured in sufficient quantities. In the interim, the proposal to distribute & require masks of anyone in the public sphere, along with behavioral precautions, would allow many to return to work with minimal risk. It appears that mask production has been increased to the point where that may happen soon... hopefully hand sanitizer follows suit. Those measures would allow us to return to some semblance of normality.

I guess this went a little long, my apologies for the long-winded post... guess that means I haven't got it yet. ;) Time to turn in.

I find the comments about it “only being dangerous to older folks and those with underlying conditions” very hurtful as well. Both of my parents, both of my 90 year old grandmothers, and my brother fall into those categories. If anything this makes it scarier to me- I’m likely to survive to see the people I most care about die. Great. I don’t think the lives of those at higher risk have less value and I don’t think they’re expendable.
 

TwinCitiesPanda

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This antibody test to see if you have been exposed and immune, how does this work? If you had the measles in the past or were vaccinated then blood work will show you are immune, but if you had influenza A last year or a few months ago, would there be antibodies in your blood? Now they are saying that they are finding no antibodies in survivors, so isn't that to be expected or in your blood you have antibodies to the Hong Kong Flu, the Swine Flu, influenza A, influenza B, if you had those in the past?
This is a really important topic. Typically after we get sick with a virus our body has formed antibodies that will allow it to immediately identify and suppress the virus if we are exposed again. Antibodies are very specific to a virus, which is why you can catch two different strains of flu in the same year. The number of antibodies formed and how long they remain active varies greatly and is dependent on the individual, the severity of the illness, and several other factors.

There is so much we don’t know. So far it appears possible that not everyone is forming antibodies for this or that they are short-lived, implying being exposed/sick may not lead to immunity, or that the immunity period could be very short (several weeks). The other big knowledge gap is whether thus virus is persistent, like chicken pox, that lives in our bodies indefinitely. South Korea has had ~ 100 people who they say have had their illness “reactivate.” Truth is we don’t know if their tests that determined they were fully recovered were wrong and they were still sick, if they caught the virus again (lack of immunity) or if the virus is persistent in their body and really did reactivate, similar to chicken pox causing shingles later in life.

In my mind this this the worst part not to know. Currently modeling and decision making on social distancing and stay home measures are based on the assumption that everyone will get it once and either die or recover with some measure of immunity. Realistically we’re looking at about a 12 month minimum to get a vaccine that works. So far this looks like a good candidate virus for vaccine (it hasn’t been changing too much). In the mean time I’m buckled in for up to 2 years of utter chaos.

My concern is never that governments are over-hyping something (news sure, ratings) but governments would be more likely to suppress information on the severity of an issue to help avoid panic and mayhem.
 

Rhodie Ranch

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Nobody's constitutional rights are being infringed upon by a mask or stay at home order. If you want to let this new strain of virus to run amok as you debate the rights of your founding fathers' writings to protect your american rights as a citizen, go ahead. But sane and cautious humans also have the right to do as suggested by the medical community to help mitigate this strain with ridiculously long incubation times and alarming rates of infection. Its not just the flu, folks.
 

seedcorn

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Actually, stay at home order, does. No one-to my knowledge-is arguing that. No one is arguing that some will die from it. Nobody is arguing that it is not contagious. What is being discussed is how to attack this virus-similar to a flu out break.

Which is worse, flu that kills 30,000 annually or this virus at 24,000 (CVC is counting Coronavirus if suspected that it might have only been part of problem, so real numbers are now impossible to obtain.)? Flu kills all ages, this one, 65+ with tendency to kill type A men. All ages, both sexes, are getting infected.

Obviously none of us have any input in what the government mandates. What is now being stated, is that the lock down was never intended to stop the disease but to slow it down while scientists found some meds or a slow general infestation of everyone.
 

Xerocles

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I find the comments about it “only being dangerous to older folks and those with underlying conditions” very hurtful as well. Both of my parents, both of my 90 year old grandmothers, and my brother fall into those categories. If anything this makes it scarier to me- I’m likely to survive to see the people I most care about die. Great. I don’t think the lives of those at higher risk have less value and I don’t think they’re expendable.
Sorry you're hurt that people are repeating the fact that older folks and those with underlying conditions are most likely to die from this disease. But it's a fact (one of the few actual "facts" that we know about this virus). Whether it hurts your feelings or not.
Secondly, sorry it scares you that your parents and grandparents will die before you. But. Again. Facts are Facts. That's probably going to happen, Co Vid 19 or not. Come to terms with it.
Expendable? No......but yes.
I feel qualified to say these things. My qualifications? I am 67 years old. I have at risk underlying health problems. If....no, WHEN I catch this virus, it is most likely a death sentence for me. I won't take a vaccine if one is developed. Last time I took a flu shot, I became so sick I was not able to dial 911 on my phone. So what? I've had a good full life. I'm still able to do most of the things I enjoy doing. I'm not locked up, vegetable style in a nursing home. News flash. Life itself is a death sentence. None of us are going to get out alive. Why is everyone so afraid of dying?
Back to the Expendable part. I'm in no hurry to go, and I would certainly balk at voluntarily walking into a gas chamber.....but if given a choice between me living or someone in their prime dying, into the chamber I'd go.I've done mine. I'm "expendable"....somewhat.
Please, with respect. Get over yourself and grow up.
 

Dirtmechanic

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I love this, it's worth repeating. So true.

I personally do not believe any of the "number of cases" numbers. Enough people haven't been tested and what testing has been done has been limited to specific cases since we don't have enough tests, plus testing facilities have limits too. I'm not sure either how accurate many of those tests are.

The number of deaths is probably a better number. It's still an estimate. Not everyone is tested. Some deaths could be attributed to pneumonia or other causes so there may be an undercount. Or even if Coronavirus was present it may have been a contributing factor, not the total cause so there could be an over-count. Or they coud just guess that it might have been Covid 19. People die from underlying conditions all the time. For what it is worth 11 people have died attributed to this virus in my parish out of a total population of about 23,000.

There has been another pandemic in modern history. The Spanish Flu of 1918 killed an estimated 500,000 to 675,000 Americans out of a population of just over 100,000,000. With today's population of over 300,000,000 Americans that would be well over 1,500,000 deaths depending on which estimate you use. When I see a site quote one of these numbers instead of giving the range I figure they are being political and move on. Let's say I don't consider them a credible unbiased source. These numbers are estimates, you can nitpick all you want. This is still a lot of dead people.

Covid 19 is not the Spanish Flu. It attacks the body differently. Both are quite contagious but is one "more" contagious than the other. Argue all you want but Covid 19 is contagious.

This is not 1918. We've learned a lot on how diseases spread and how to treat them. Equipment has improved, how many people are being saved today because of ventilators that did not exist in 1918. Comparing death rates of Covid 19 to Spanish Flu makes as much sense as comparing yield per acre of wheat to what was grown in 1918 to the yields we get today. But it gives you an order of magnitude as to how bad it could be if it was 1918. Or if we act as if it were still 1918.

I agree we will not be past this until we get herd immunity. That might be when everyone is exposed and those that die, die. Or maybe they can develop a vaccine to give us that immunity if we can slow the spread enough to give them time. And they are learning better how to treat it. In that respect the longer you can delay getting it the better your chances.

But the flip side of that is that if we don't use what we have learned to slow the spread, we won't slow the spread. If our medical facilities, equipment, and personnel get so overwhelmed they can't use what they know and have the death rate and suffering will dramatically increase. That's why they are trying to flatten the curve. So our friends and relatives that this thing hits hard can be treated humanely and given a chance instead of stacked like cordwood in hallways to die.

In my opinion we will start opening back up pretty soon. I don't expect it to be exactly like it was before where you could go anywhere at any time and crowd up as much as you wished. They will try to control it so the increase in cases can be treated as they increase the treatment facilities, equipment, and hopefully get more people trained to treat the infected.
The one thing that worries me about the 1918 flu was not only did it have 3 waves, but that it did not recede until the summer of 1919.
 

baymule

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I am sick and tired of the celebrities entertaining us from their homes. They want us to believe that they are suffering, but pushing forward to take the blues away from cooped up people. Gag a maggot. It would be a much better show if they were in a small apartment with 5 kids, home schooling, no toilet paper, limited food, a dog peeing on the floor, NO JOB-NO PAY and all the other things normal people are dealing with. Instead, they serenade us in the comforts of their mansions to make us feel better. And the tag line "WE ARE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER" Bullshirt.
 

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