Price increases and shortages

[heirloomgal]

@seedcorn are grains the crop that would be affected most by this new policy? Any ideas on immediate collateral damage elsewhere?

 

[seedcorn]

The grasses will be affected the most-wheat, corn, oats

No. IF I did, I’d be a rich man because I’d be either buying or selling short. Type of meat and amount per person has an effect on grain demand.

 

[heirloomgal]

Meat; funny but true story, Southern Ontario has the largest 'crickets for human consumption' facility in the world. Gov has been trying to get us to eat powdered crickets for years, all recipes on the radio how to use them in smoothies, add them to salad dressings etc. The packages on the grocery store shelves never budged. Thanks, but no thanks! Probably cheap to raise crickets.

Eta: Lol, facility is called 'Aspire'. Just checked the name.

 

[seedcorn]

IF I see in store, will have to try if they have samples.

 

[flowerbug]

fried grasshoppers are ok, kinda resinous and crunchy.

 

[ducks4you]

I'd eat crickets eaten by chickens.

 

[farmerjan]

These restrictions on nitrogen for fertilizer is going to have some very big long term repercussions. I am not a huge fan of commercial fertilizer. That said, like many other things, it has it's place in commercial ag and the crop yields of many of the grain crops. There is not enough manure/animal fertilizer to use for some of these crops and it is not available in many places where it is most needed for growing crops. That is in part due to specialized farming as opposed to the diversified farms that were typical in the 1800's of every farm having animals and crops to be more self sufficient... plus the l;imits of what a man and a team of animals could do in a day. We as a country will never go back to that without a complete collapse of the world... Yes some will go back/ or AHEAD to a small diversified individual farm for self sufficiency... but that is not going to feed the masses... and many places are not conducive to that type of farming....

All that aside.... there will be more and more shortages. Fields that are not well fertilized will not produce up to their potential. Lower yields will make the price go up... you are working on the basis of greater quantity costs less .... If it costs $1000 to plant 50 acres, and you can get a crop back worth $3,000... that gives you $2,000 to cover the fertilizer costs, the fuel to plant, the costs to harvest and get that crop to market. Say it costs a total of @2,000 to plant, fertilize, work, harvest and sell that crop. You have made $1,000 for that 50 acres.... or $20/acre... as your "PAY" for time spent.
Now if you have 1,000 acres instead of 50 then you make a small living... 20,000... but when you think of it how many of today's people want to only make a $20,000 income for their time for the year.
But go the other direction... If there is not enough fertilizer to get an optimum crop... and the fertilizer costs TWICE ( and nitrogen tripled in cost this past year not doubled) so you use less... diesel fuel to plant , harvest etc has doubled in cost also... BUT let's just ASSUME the input costs have stayed the same $2,000... which they have not..... and you only get back half the crop... so only $10/acre.... you are way in the hole....
This is very simplified... and not accurate "to scale".... but the margins most farmers operate on are very small. Quantity and number of acres; also helps to spread the cost of equipment out... because you are going to pay $100,000 for that tractor whether you harvest 50 acres or 1,000 acres....
How many of you can grow all your own basic crops.... wheat, corn, oats, as feed for your animals as well as what is needed for things like basic bread making and cereals and all that????
When it gets to the point a farmer cannot at least pay for his costs, he will not be able to continue to farm.

If you have not spent any time do a little internet searching about the Dutch farmers in Holland... what this whole "global economy-green new deal type" of thinking is doing to their ability to farm and make a living. And stop to think about what it is going to mean with greatly reduced food supplies... you are talking famine that will spread...
This is not a pipe dream people... this is coming faster than anyone can comprehend
You add this to the drought areas here in the US.... yes affecting the cattle industry... but it is also affecting the grain producing regions.... so even those that eschew meat and cattle farming and hogs and chickens... and without these grain producing areas... if it were to all go to people instead of animal feed... the reduced or non-existent yields... is going to have an impact on everything....
Ukraine shipped out their first ship load of grain... how long will that last? what about the land devastated there that produced farm crops... the delay in farmers getting into their fields to work... crops not planted.... the constant rain in other places, flooding etc???
Reduced crops from natural disasters cannot be "fixed" until the next season comes along..... reduced crops from rules and regulations that hamper a farmers ability to the best job of farming he is capable of can be fixed... and might be all that will save the people that will otherwise starve.

 

[ducks4you]

That is why I keep saying, 2022 is the year to Learn to grow, 2023 we will depend upon whatEVER we are able to grow.
If you have limited space, there are TONS of ways to grow cold weather crops 365 in your windows, growing vertical, growing in containers, etc.
DON'T DESPAIR!!!

 

[seedcorn]

Just a few numbers...

Seed cost $100/acre.
Starter and or 2X2 is ~$100/acre
Pesticides can vary from $40-$100/acre. (Non GMO would be almost double.)
Cash rent can vary from $200-$400/acre.
Insurance roughly $50/acre.
P/K $200/acre.
Nitrogen ~$180/acre

Tractors vary from $100-$200K
Planter roughly $200K
Combine with bean/corn heads roughly $1M.
(Buy smaller, less complicated machines, welcome to OSHA and environmental laws.)

Trying to buy smaller used equipment is hard as most not for sale or bought by vegetable growers or shipped overseas. Plus it will be used so repair bills (if you can get the parts) is excessive with $120/hour labor costs.

When you look at equipment costs, it is easy to see why this has to be spread over acres. This also means hired labor at $50,000/year-you can’t put untrained or kids in a $100K to $1M machine.

While I don’t like it, large Ag is needed and a fact of life just like large automotive makers, energy companies, armed forces, markets, equipment (all kinds) makers, etc....

 

[seedcorn]

That is why I keep saying, 2022 is the year to Learn to grow, 2023 we will depend upon whatEVER we are able to grow.
If you have limited space, there are TONS of ways to grow cold weather crops 365 in your windows, growing vertical, growing in containers, etc.
DON'T DESPAIR!!!

While I agree, keep in mind, in USA we spend about 7% on food. Rest of world spends about 30+%. Grocery bill is high because Americans buy convenance plus non-grocery items while they are there. There is no reason to buy lesser food but reasons to not buy luxuries, vacas' designer clothes, etc. does anyone think Americans wil, raising their own, making food from scratch or canning themselves?