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- #11
digitS'
Garden Master
Well, I finally thought of something and it was about 10 days ago that I returned that book to the library . . .
Fred's post on time travel made me realize that I feel as tho' the future belongs to someone else. It would be wonderful to have little blame for how things turn out - trying not to mess it up for them.
There was a book I checked out of the library a few weeks ago, Countdown by Alan Weisman. I was a little disappointed that it wasn't very scientific and somewhat negative. The anticipated part, for me, was his interviews with Japanese economists. Turns out, there was really only one and he was somewhat critical of his country's most recent turns.
Japan has been losing population and that is what Countdown is suggesting - bring the population down to sustainable levels. I decided that I'd just give the book a quick look but the idea that Humanity and the Earth would be fine if our population was 1/2 of its current level didn't seem to be too soundly based on science. Nevertheless, it made some sense to me.
The trend doesn't seem all that impossible. Anytime a society has given women much power over their lives or the lives of their families, the birth rate drops and continues dropping. Maintaining some level of opportunity and prosperity seems generally to make more sense to women than men. Never ending growth, boom times and general degrading of the natural environment seem to be the only things that sustains the current economic tack for men. Funny how we end up with less opportunity and more winner-take-all under that scenario.
So, how miserable are the Japanese now that their population growth (and economic growth, for that matter) has slowed. Well, it doesn't seem to be bothering them much. The recent tsunami and nuclear plant meltdown seems to have prompted some of the old guard to rev up their "growth" plans. The economist pointed to the rebuilding of their fishing ports. It will take them 20 years to return to pre-tsunami conditions and by that time they will have 25% fewer people in the fishing industry. Make any sense? Only if they open the immigration gates to people from other parts of the world. Or, get Japanese women to hurry up and have a lot more kids.
The same slowing of population growth is taking place in western Europe. In the poorer nations of the world, who in their right minds would suggest that they should have larger families and more mouths to feed. Meanwhile, most of the 1st world population growth slows to replacement numbers and below. That looks to me more like the Countdown that Mr. Weisman is hoping for and every bit as likely as an apocalyptic future.
Steve
Fred's post on time travel made me realize that I feel as tho' the future belongs to someone else. It would be wonderful to have little blame for how things turn out - trying not to mess it up for them.
There was a book I checked out of the library a few weeks ago, Countdown by Alan Weisman. I was a little disappointed that it wasn't very scientific and somewhat negative. The anticipated part, for me, was his interviews with Japanese economists. Turns out, there was really only one and he was somewhat critical of his country's most recent turns.
Japan has been losing population and that is what Countdown is suggesting - bring the population down to sustainable levels. I decided that I'd just give the book a quick look but the idea that Humanity and the Earth would be fine if our population was 1/2 of its current level didn't seem to be too soundly based on science. Nevertheless, it made some sense to me.
The trend doesn't seem all that impossible. Anytime a society has given women much power over their lives or the lives of their families, the birth rate drops and continues dropping. Maintaining some level of opportunity and prosperity seems generally to make more sense to women than men. Never ending growth, boom times and general degrading of the natural environment seem to be the only things that sustains the current economic tack for men. Funny how we end up with less opportunity and more winner-take-all under that scenario.
So, how miserable are the Japanese now that their population growth (and economic growth, for that matter) has slowed. Well, it doesn't seem to be bothering them much. The recent tsunami and nuclear plant meltdown seems to have prompted some of the old guard to rev up their "growth" plans. The economist pointed to the rebuilding of their fishing ports. It will take them 20 years to return to pre-tsunami conditions and by that time they will have 25% fewer people in the fishing industry. Make any sense? Only if they open the immigration gates to people from other parts of the world. Or, get Japanese women to hurry up and have a lot more kids.
The same slowing of population growth is taking place in western Europe. In the poorer nations of the world, who in their right minds would suggest that they should have larger families and more mouths to feed. Meanwhile, most of the 1st world population growth slows to replacement numbers and below. That looks to me more like the Countdown that Mr. Weisman is hoping for and every bit as likely as an apocalyptic future.
Steve
